The tech cycle is louder than ever. Mega-fundraises, headline valuations, and nonstop AI narratives dominate the conversation. But separating durable signal from noise has never been more important.
In a recent ION Influencers fireside chat with Giovanni, Alpha Partners Managing Partner Steve Brotman shared how he thinks about identifying real trends in technology and navigating today’s venture landscape with discipline.
A central theme of the conversation: growth-stage investing remains the sweet spot.
Unlike early-stage bets where outcomes are often driven by vision and storytelling or late-stage investing that depends heavily on IPO windows, growth-stage companies offer something different: data. Revenue traction, customer adoption, and operational metrics provide a clearer picture of what’s working and what isn’t.
As Brotman noted, technology’s share of global GDP continues to expand, while the number of public companies shrinks. More value creation is happening in private markets, and increasingly at scale. For long-term investors, exposure to tech is no longer optional, but how you access that exposure matters.
Identifying winners, Brotman argues, comes down to a few core principles:
- Category leadership matters. The #1 player tends to capture the vast majority of returns.
- Sponsorship matters. Top-quartile investors tend to back repeat winners.
- Valuation discipline matters. Overpaying, even in high-growth sectors, compounds risk.
He also emphasized the importance of non-consensus thinking. “The way a GP makes money is to be right when the market thinks you’re wrong,” Brotman said, highlighting why differentiated conviction remains a prerequisite for outsized returns.
The conversation also touched on the future of venture capital itself. While mega-funds grab headlines, Brotman believes opportunity remains for smaller, focused managers with clear edges, particularly as new waves like AI and crypto reshape the landscape. Trust, alignment, and real skin in the game continue to separate durable firms from fleeting ones.
At Alpha Partners, we believe the best outcomes come from disciplined growth investing, long-term relationships, and a relentless focus on fundamentals. Trends will come and go, but signal (when you know how to find it) tends to persist.
Watch the full ION Influencers conversation here.
