We are delighted to announce our investment in Kalshi, the first U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulated exchange dedicated to trading on the outcome of future events. Alpha is participating in the company’s $1 billion Series E financing, which was led by Paradigm, with participation from Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, Meritech Capital, IVP, ARK Invest, Anthos Capital, CapitalG, and Y Combinator. The round comes on the heels of Kalshi’s $300 million Series D in October 2025, which was also led by top-tier firms including Sequoia and Andreessen Horowitz.
Kalshi is defining one of the most ambitious categories in modern finance: a fully regulated exchange for trading on the outcome of real-world events. As prediction markets enter the mainstream, Kalshi stands out, having positioned itself as an institutional-grade financial venue that’s operating under the oversight of the CFTC. We believe the company’s rapid growth, regulatory advantage, and strong financial profile have created a powerful foundation for building what could become a new global asset class.
The rise of event-based trading
Prediction markets allow individuals and institutions to buy and sell event contracts tied to the outcomes of future events, from election results and macroeconomic data releases to cultural milestones and weather events, just to cite a few examples. Since these markets harness collective intelligence and the incentive of having real capital at stake, they often produce more accurate forecasts than polls or expert predictions.
Importantly, Kalshi is pioneering this market with a singular vision. It wants to enable people to trade on the outcome of anything in the news. As AI accelerates and deepfakes erode trust in information, Kalshi’s capital-backed consensus offers something increasingly scarce: a real-time, market-driven source of truth. And the implications of that extend far beyond speculation. The platform has the potential to become a core component of the broader information ecosystem.
The financial opportunity is immense, positioning Kalshi as a potential giant in the global exchange landscape. The company’s regulated model positions it to unlock institutional hedging and mass retail adoption, creating the conditions for event contracts to emerge as a mainstream financial asset class. This goal is validated by the sheer size of existing venues. With tens of trillions of dollars traded annually in the US stock and derivatives markets alone, Kalshi is aiming for market capitalization and scale comparable to major exchanges like the CME or NYSE, not just the much smaller sports betting industry. This ambition provides a clear, multi-trillion-dollar upside for the business model.
Partnerships and brand validation
Kalshi’s regulatory-first approach has positioned the company as a credible and secure partner, unlocking collaborations with premier, high-profile brands across finance and entertainment.
The company has successfully integrated with major financial services businesses, notably the brokerage Robinhood and the crypto-brokerage Coinbase, leveraging their massive user bases for distribution. Beyond finance, Kalshi has secured key brand validation in the entertainment world, partnering with the National Hockey League (NHL) in the US, with more major announcements expected. These partnerships are a crucial strategic initiative that affirm Kalshi’s status as a legitimate exchange and provide vast low-cost channels for mass retail adoption.
Why we invested
Kalshi has emerged as the clear category leader in regulated prediction markets, combining exceptional growth, a defensible regulatory position, diversified distribution partnerships, and strong financial performance. The company’s trading volumes are now surpassing $1 billion every week, up over 1000% from 2024. Millions of users access Kalshi weekly to trade the future in over 3,500 markets. Plus, its CFTC license gives Kalshi a unique and durable moat, enabling it to operate as a true financial exchange and attract both institutional and retail participants.
As Kalshi continues to execute its vision of building the global exchange for event contracts, the company is entering a period of accelerating momentum, supported by regulatory tailwinds, expanding market breadth, and growing institutional interest. As volumes rise and adoption deepens, Kalshi is positioned to become one of the foundational financial platforms of its time.
We’re very proud to back Tarek, Luana, and the entire Kalshi team as they continue transforming how people hedge, speculate, and understand the future.
